Energy efficiency impact on urban residential’s electricity consumption and carbon dioxide reduction: a case study of Lomé, Togo

Urban areas’ energy consumption accounts for almost three fourths the global energy use with 70% of the related emissions. Therefore, cities play a meaningful role in decoupling economic growth from greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions. This study presents a system dynamic approach to model the energy efficiency impact on the Togolese capital city’s residential electricity consumption and carbon dioxide emissions reduction. The time spans from 2000 to 2050. An assessment of household appliances, such as lighting, refrigeration, cooling, and ventilation, was conducted along with monitoring electricity consumption of used and newly bought televisions, refrigerators, and freezers. Then, using Stella software, Lomé’s residential electricity consumption model was built based on the following variables: (1) population, (2) the number of existing households with access to electricity, (3) new homes having access to electricity, and (4) per capita electricity consumption. The model was calibrated and validated using data for the years 2000 to 2016. Afterward, this previous knowledge was used to evaluate three efficient energy policies: 1) business-as-usual scenario, 2) new policies scenario, and 3) sensitivity scenario. Lomé’s households present a predominantly low efficient appliances percentage. Therefore, the study found that substituting inefficient electric appliances with new and efficient models can lead Togo to substantial energy savings and reduce CO2 emissions of about 680 GWh and 350 kt in the horizon of 2050, respectively. Additionally, the findings of this study could stimulate policymakers to audit other sectors to implement related energy efficiency policies and/or set up corresponding energy management strategies in neighboring emerging countries.