Evolution of tropical cyclone genesis regions during the Cenozoic era

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作者
Qing Yan
Robert Korty
Zhongshi Zhang
Huijun Wang
机构
[1] Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nansen
[2] Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS),Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics
[3] Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences
[4] Texas A&M University,Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters
[5] China University of Geosciences,Department of Atmospheric Sciences
[6] Bjerknes Center for Climate Research,Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental Studies
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How the substantial climate shifts of the Cenozoic era shaped the geographical distribution of tropical cyclone genesis remains unknown. Through a set of coupled model simulations, we demonstrate that conditions during the warmer Early Eocene are more favorable for storm formation over the Southern Hemisphere, particularly the South Indian Ocean. As the climate cools, there is an increasing favorability for genesis in the Northern Hemisphere and a coincident decrease in the Southern Hemisphere over time, with the locations most conducive to storms migrating equatorward in both hemispheres. A shift in the most favorable conditions to the western North Pacific likely occurs during the Pliocene, largely due to the closure of the tropical seaways, and marks the final establishment of modern tropical cyclone distribution. The substantial variations of genesis regions in the Cenozoic may affect upper-ocean vertical mixing and hence tropical/global climate, but are missed in most current deep-time simulations.
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