Modelling and forecasting of carbon-dioxide emissions in South Africa by using ARIMA model

The major cause of global warming is greenhouse gases (GHGs). Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the key GHG contributing to environmental pollution and global warming. Overall climatic conditions are changing with global temperatures rising and the level of greenhouse gases increase in the atmosphere. This is of serious concern as this climatic change will have dire consequences for crops, human health, ecological balance and biodiversity. Climatic changes and imbalance in ecology can be ascribed to an increase in carbon-dioxide emissions in the environment. South Africa being a developing economy is at the thirteenth position in carbon-dioxide emissions. It is also one of the developing countries that top in consumption of fossil fuels. It is important to forecast future carbon-dioxide emissions for South Africa so that suitable sustainability policies can be framed and measures can be taken at the right time. Annual time series data of South Africa from the time period 1980 to 2016, has been used in this study to develop autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict CO2 emissions for the period of 2015–2027. It is forecasted by the use of the ARIMA model that carbon-dioxide emissions will rise at a constant rate in the next ten years in South Africa. This study will add a new dimension to existing literature and will provide a base for framing feasible environmental policies.