Preference erosion and market access liberalization: the African dilemma in multilateral negotiations on agriculture

African countries, especially sub-Saharan ones, have conflicting interests in multilateral negotiations on agriculture. On the one hand, their economies may be boosted by the price effect induced by agricultural liberalization. On the other hand, multilateral tariff cuts will result in the erosion of preferential margins. Based on an original methodology, using CGE modeling, detailed tariff calculations and predictive analysis, this paper investigates the potential impact of current multilateral negotiations on the value of preferences for African agriculture. It estimates the preferential value to USD 0.7 billion of welfare and USD 1 billion of exports to the Triad markets. Furthermore, it highlights the “cruel dilemma” African countries face in current negotiations, as they gain from ambitious trade liberalization, despite the large preferential erosion, while they suffer from noticeable trade and welfare losses under conservative scenarios.