Evolutionary patterns and influencing factors of relationships among ecosystem services in the hilly red soil region of Southern China

As a crucial ecological protection area in China, the Southern hilly red soil region is characterized by uneven spatial and temporal distribution of ecological landscape elements, unpredictable and changeable interrelationships between them, diversified driving factors, and lack of comprehensive consideration of ecosystem services. In order to better understand the interaction between ecosystem services, restore regional ecology, and promote sustainable development, the evolution law and influencing mechanism of ecosystem services and their driving factors are quantitatively analyzed in the study. Based on simulations of different ecosystem services from 2000 to 2020, their spatial and temporal changes and the contributions of main drivers are quantified, their trade-offs and synergies are analyzed, and the changing rules under the influence of natural factors and socioeconomic factors are explored. The results show that (1) the crop production significantly increases in the southwest and north regions, the habitat quality decreases in urban and coastal areas, and the soil retention and water yield show an increasing trend from west to east. (2) Land use/cover is the main driver of carbon storage and habitat quality variation, and precipitation is an important driver of water yield spatial variation. (3) The crop production and the other four ecosystem services show a trade-offs relationship, and the relationship between supporting services and regulating services is the synergetic. (4) The altitude weakens the synergistic relationship between soil retention and habitat quality/carbon storage, while it enhances the synergistic relationship between soil retention and water yield. Driven by precipitation factors, ecosystem services related to water yield have significant differences in the change. The population density enhances the trade-offs of crop production and soil retention, as well as the synergistic relationship between soil retention and habitat quality/carbon storage. In different land use/cover (LULC), the influence of urban land on ecosystem services relationship change is more obvious. Overall, this study can provide scientific bases and policy suggestions for ecosystem protection/restoration in the red soil region of Southern China, which has an important theoretical and practical significance.