Demand Forecasting of Electricity and Optimal Locationing of Transformer Locations Using Geo-Spatial Techniques: A Case Study of Districts of Bihar, India

In the present study an attempt has been made to identify the demand of each household in the study area, in order to divide the villages into pockets of high, moderate and low priority for provision of electrification. This division is based on a “Priority Index” that has been designed in a manner to address the variations in electricity demand also considering the socio-economic background of the household dwellers. Parameters that were applied in order the assess the socio-economic status were, monthly income/expenditure, rate of literacy, occupational structure, number of school going children, size of household and level of poverty i.e. identification of APL/BPL households. Out of these, the most significant contributors were included in the computation of a bias free Priority Index. The spatial division (as per priority) was helpful in proposing potential locations for the placement of new transformers, providing higher spatial coverage with planned energy allocation and minimized transmission loss. According to this methodology, a holistic categorization was achieved which closely identified the pockets needed to be given highest priority for providing electricity, without compromising on greatest spatial coverage. The average percentage of households that remained uncovered across the five villages studied was 9.68 % only, promising a reasonably high coverage.