Global warming and the future of Caribbean coral reefs

Computer simulations with the COREEF model (Graus et al. 1984) demonstrate that the growth of Caribbean coral reefs will be unable to match all but the most optimistic predicted rates of sea level rise that global warming is expected to cause over the next few centuries, and, therefore, these reefs will gradually become more submerged. As they deepen, higher waves will propagate into back-reef areas, altering the ecological and sedimentological zonation patterns and accelerating the erosion of leeward shelves and shores. Resuspended sediment will increase the turbidity, causing the demise of sediment-sensitive corals and possibly entire reef communities.