Ecological risk assessment and multi-scenario dynamic prediction of the arid oasis cities in northwest China from 1990 to 2030

The healthy development of human society and the ecological environment depends on the guarantee of ecological security. However, the impact mechanisms of the influencing factors of ecological risk and the prediction of future scenarios are still not sufficiently developed, especially in arid oasis cities. Based on multivariate data, this research used the ecological risk assessment model based on landscape pattern index to revealing the spatial and temporal evolution trend of Urumqi-Changji-Shihezi urban agglomerations (UCSUA) ecological risk and the influence mechanism of influencing factors, and used the PLUS model to simulate and predict the ecological risk in 2030 under natural development (ND) scenario, economic development (ED) scenario and ecological protection (EP) scenario. The results showed that: (1) The overall risk indexes of the UCSUA in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020 were 0.01381, 0.01364, 0.01325 and 0.01440 respectively, the relative ERI of cropland is low, the ERI of unused land is the highest. (2) Ecological risks were distributed in clusters, and the interaction of multiple factors made impact on ecological risk. (3) Ecological risk showed an overall distribution of high in the north and low in the south in the UCSUA, and that the cumulative effect of changes in landscape patterns caused by human activities would lead to changes in ecological risk, and the EP had the lowest ecological risk in the future scenarios. Ultimately, the results of this study explored the spatial and temporal changes in ecological risks and their impact mechanisms, improving ecological risk management and sustainable development strategies.