The Integrated Aerobiology Modeling System applied to the spread of soybean rust into the Ohio River valley during September 2006

Soybean rust (Phakopsora pachyrhizi) has recently invaded North America and has the potential to be the most destructive foliar disease of soybean. As part of the response to this threat, the Integrated Aerobiology Modeling System (IAMS) was constructed to forecast the aerial movement of this pathogen from subtropical to middle latitude portions of the continent. IAMS simulations have been conducted daily for the past two growing seasons and integrated with information from a nationwide observation network into a decision support system for soybean farmers. After the 2005 season, the United States Department of Agriculture reported that many millions of United States (U.S.) soybean hectares that would have been treated for soybean rust in 2005 were not due to this decision support system. In 2006, soybean rust appeared for the first time in the major U.S. soybean production region over 1000 km from known areas of inoculum production. IAMS predictions of the geographical extent and timing of disease symptom expression were well matched with subsequent observations of the disease in the field.