A study of tour formation: pre-, during, and post-recession analysis

This study examines changes in activity-travel patterns of employed people during a recession by using a tour-based representation of the activity-based approach. The term tour is defined as a sequence of trips and activities that begins and ends at home and contains at least one non-home activity. Tours are classified based on the presence of work and/or non-work activities. We are interested in investigating how a recession can affect an individual’s tour choices. We developed a rigorous methodological framework by using multi-group structural equation modeling (SEM) to analyze changes in tour choice. In particular, we developed a causal structure conceptualsizing the interrelationships among socio-demographic and economic characteristics, activity-travel participation, and the choice of various work and non-work tours. Using data from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS), the study found that activity-travel relationships and their role in tour choice differed in the recession year (2009) compared to pre- and post-recession years (2009 and 2012, respectively). By analyzing temporal changes in causal structure, we identified four sub-trend groups defined by: (1) norms that did not change in pre-, during, and post-recession years, (2) norms that changed during the recession but returned to the old norm, (3) norms that changed during the recession and were maintained as new norm, and finally (4) 2006 norms that did not change during the 2009 recession but changed after the recession. Via analysis of multiple group SEM, we identified instances of each of these cases and provided potential rationales in the context of how a recession can influence norms and thus can affect activity-travel behavior.