Simulating conversion of even-aged Norway spruce into uneven-aged mixed forest: effects of different scenarios on production, economy and heterogeneity

Despite a general lack of knowledge on the effects of different strategies, conversion of even-aged stands to uneven-aged forest is ongoing across Europe. Conversion of Bavarian Norway spruce stands under the present climate scenario was simulated using the individual tree simulator SILVA. Three conversion strategies initiated at two different stand ages, 30 and 60 years, were simulated to develop uneven-aged mixed stands of Norway spruce, silver fir and European beech: gap creation, shelterwood and passive conversion. The three conversion strategies were furthermore combined with different harvesting rates. These conversion scenarios were compared with maintaining the even-aged Norway spruce management as reference. Scenarios were evaluated in terms of mean annual increment and structural development over a 150-year conversion period as well as the expectation value (EV) for eternal future rotations. Compared to the reference scenario, conversion scenarios reduced mean annual increment (6–43%) and also generally EV (−5–78%), except for some scenarios when stand age at conversion was 60 and applying a 3% discount rate. Conversion by shelterwood always reduced EV (both compared to the reference and other conversion scenarios) when initiated at age 30. With passive conversion, the effect on EV was dependent on the assumptions regarding regeneration costs. Gap conversion generally resulted in high EV and increased stand heterogeneity fastest among the different strategies. Other scenarios, especially passive conversion, were dependent on heavy thinning for developing heterogeneity faster (although still slower than with creation of gaps). Most conversion scenarios eventually resulted in similar structural heterogeneity, but the time it took to get to this stage varied greatly (50–120 years). Conversion by creation of smaller gaps in combination with a high rate of target diameter harvesting resulted in a favorable conversion in terms of economic returns and development of stand heterogeneity due to early income and differentiated regeneration.