Simulation of land-use scenarios for Beijing using CLUE-S and Markov composite models

This study investigated and simulated land use patterns in Beijing for the year 2000 and the year 2005 from the actual land use data for the year 1995 and the year 2000, respectively, by combining spatial land allocation simulation using the CLUE-S model, and numerical land demand prediction using the Markov model. The simulations for 2000 and 2005 were confirmed to be generally accurate using Kappa indices. Then the land-use scenarios for Beijing in 2015 were simulated assuming two modes of development: 1) urban development following existing trends; and 2) under a strict farmland control. The simulations suggested that under either mode, urbanized areas would expand at the expense of land for other uses. This expansion was predicted to dominate the land-use conversions between 2005 and 2015, and was expected to be accompanied by an extensive loss of farmland. The key susceptible to land-use changes were found to be located at the central urban Beijing and the surrounding regions including Yanqing County, Changping District and Fangshan District. Also, the simulations predicted a considerable expansion of urban/suburban areas in the mountainous regions of Beijing, suggesting a need for priority monitoring and protection.