The study on the characteristics of carbon pressure agglomeration and the dynamic evolution of heterogeneity in China from a regional perspective

Provinces (cities and districts) with identifiable boundaries are under intense pressure to reduce emissions as a fundamental unit and research object of carbon peaking and carbon-neutrality goals. Due to the significant variability of regional development, achieving equilibrium between carbon emissions and carbon absorption is challenging, contributing to the difficulty of developing carbon emission reduction and relevant green strategic initiatives in China. Therefore, this paper explored the spatial effect of carbon balance with carbon pressure as the starting point. First, this paper defined the “carbon pressure index” (CPI) of 30 provinces (cities and districts) in China from 2000 to 2019. Second, this paper validated the CPI agglomeration evolutionary characteristics in global and local aspects based on the Moran’s index. Third, this paper identified and decomposed the spatial heterogeneity of CPI using the kernel density estimation method and the Theil index, then extracted typical cities to analyze the specific causes. Finally, this paper classified the seven regions in China into four types according to a comprehensive analysis of CPI. The results indicated that China’s ecological carbon cycle system was in a serious “carbon overload” state. Thirty provinces (cities and districts) showed significant spatial agglomeration characteristics. The spatial gap of CPI was gradually decreasing nationwide, and the intra-regional differences were the leading cause of CPI levels in China. This can provide policy basis for the improvement of China’s balanced development system of regional carbon emission reduction.