Thaw-induced slope failures and stability analyses in permafrost regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

The distribution of permafrost-related slope failures along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway from Wuddaoliang to Fenghuoshan correlates with ice content, slope gradient, and ground temperature. Slope failures are of two types. (1) Retrogressive thaw slumps result from icy permafrost being exposed by either man-induced excavation or fluvial-thermal erosion and undercutting of basal slopes. (2) Active-layer-detachment failures are caused by thaw of icy permafrost at the active layer-permafrost interface. After initial failure, active-layer-detachment failures can lead to retrogressive thaw-slumping and localized surficial landslide. Common trigger mechanisms for failure include high summer air temperatures and heavy summer precipitation. A third possible trigger mechanism for slope failure is earthquake occurrence. A geotechnical slope stability analysis was undertaken for an active-layer-detachment failure that had progressed into a retrogressive thaw slump. A safety factor (Fs) of 1.24 for the natural slope was determined using in situ tested strength parameters. However, the slope would lose stability when either the groundwater level over the permafrost table exceeded 1.42 m or seismic acceleration reached, or exceeded, 0.03 g.