Variability in North Atlantic heat content and heat transport in a coupled ocean–atmosphere GCM

A coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model has been used to study the variations of North Atlantic upper ocean heat content (OHC), sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean heat transport (OHT), and the relationships between these three quantities. We find that OHC anomalies, and salinity anomalies, propagate anti-cyclonically around the North Atlantic subtropical gyre. They propagate eastward in midlatitudes and westward in low latitudes. Both the advection of mean temperature by anomalous currents and the advection of temperature anomalies by mean currents are responsible for these zonal propagations. In addition to zonal propagations, upper ocean temperature anomalies propagate southward in the eastern North Atlantic, where subduction plays a dominant role. Variability in the northward OHT in the Atlantic is primarily governed by variability in the ocean circulation rather than variability in temperatures. Fluctuations in OHT are the major cause of anomalies in OHC and SST in the Gulf Stream extension region. This is true both for interannual variability and for decadal variability. On interannual time scales, however, surface fluxes also make a significant contribution. Analysis of the relationships of OHT with OHC and SST suggests that a knowledge of OHT fluctuations could be used to predict variations in OHC, and therefore sea surface temperatures, several years in advance.