Correlation analysis between the Aral Sea shrinkage and the Amu Darya River

The shrinkage of the Aral Sea, which is closely related to the Amu Darya River, strongly affects the sustainability of the local natural ecosystem, agricultural production, and human well-being. In this study, we used the Bayesian Estimator of Abrupt change, Seasonal change, and Trend (BEAST) model to detect the historical change points in the variation of the Aral Sea and the Amu Darya River and analyse the causes of the Aral Sea shrinkage during the 1950–2016 period. Further, we applied multifractal detrend cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) and quantitative analysis to investigate the responses of the Aral Sea to the runoff in the Amu Darya River, which is the main source of recharge to the Aral Sea. Our results showed that two significant trend change points in the water volume change of the Aral Sea occurred, in 1961 and 1974. Before 1961, the water volume in the Aral Sea was stable, after which it began to shrink, with a shrinkage rate fluctuating around 15.21 km3/a. After 1974, the water volume of the Aral Sea decreased substantially at a rate of up to 48.97 km3/a, which was the highest value recorded in this study. In addition, although the response of the Aral Sea’s water volume to its recharge runoff demonstrated a complex non-linear relationship, the replenishment of the Aral Sea by the runoff in the lower reaches of the Amu Darya River was identified as the dominant factor affecting the Aral Sea shrinkage. Based on the scenario analyses, we concluded that it is possible to slow down the retreat of the Aral Sea and restore its ecosystem by increasing the efficiency of agricultural water use, decreasing agricultural water use in the middle and lower reaches, reducing ineffective evaporation from reservoirs and wetlands, and increasing the water coming from the lower reaches of the Amu Darya River to the 1961–1973 level. These measures would maintain and stabilise the water area and water volume of the Aral Sea in a state of ecological restoration. Therefore, this study focuses on how human consumption of recharge runoff affects the Aral Sea and provides scientific perspective on its ecological conservation and sustainable development.