Study on Xinjiang’s bilateral trade using a gravity model

Based on the basic trade gravity model and Xinjiang’s practical situation, new explanatory variables (GDP, GDPpc and SCO) are introduced to build an augmented trade gravity model adapted to Xinjiang’s bilateral trade. From the empirical analysis of this model, it proposes that these three variables affect the Xinjiang’s bilateral trade positively. Whereas, geographic distance is found a significant factor influencing Xinjiang’s bilateral trade negatively. Then, the augmented trade gravity model analyzes the present trade situation between Xinjiang and its main trade partners in 2004 quantitatively. It indicates that Xinjiang cooperates with its most trade partners successfully in terms of present economic scale and developing level. Xinjiang has established successful trade partnership with Central Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, Western Europe, East Asia and South Asia. However, the foreign trade development with West Asia is much slower. Finally, some suggestions on developing Xinjiang's foreign trade are put forward.