Managing the Risks of War: Deterrence and the Persian Gulf Conflict 1990–91

This article assesses a particular instance of crisis management at the inter-state level of analysis. As such it is concerned with the risk management strategies employed by decision-makers in relation to the use of armed force between nations. ‘Deterrence’ is regarded here as a key mechanism which is used to establish control over, and manipulate, the process of escalation from peace to war. What makes the Gulf conflict so interesting as a case study is that it was the first post-Cold War test of the relevance of a set of risk management principles which had been formulated primarily in terms of bi-polar, nuclear-armed, superpower confrontation. As a result, a number of important lessons can be derived for the theory and practice of risk management.