Greenhouse gas emission benefits of adopting new energy vehicles in Suzhou City, China: A case study

The promotion of new energy in light-duty vehicles (LDVs) is considered as an effective approach for achieving low-carbon road transport targets. In this study, life cycle assessment was performed for five typical vehicle models in Suzhou City (fourth largest LDV stock in China): internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV), hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), plug-in electric vehicle (PHEV), battery electric vehicle (BEV) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (HFCV). Their energy consumption, and greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollutant emissions during vehicle and fuel cycles in 2020 were examined using the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model. GHG emission reduction potential of LDV fleet was projected under various scenarios for 2021–2040. The results showed that BEVs exhibited advantages for replacing ICEVs over HEVs, PHEVs and HFCVs, taking into account China’s road electrification policy. The GHG emission intensity of BEVs in 2040 was estimated to be 19–34% of ICEVs in 2020, with a deep decarbonized electricity mix and improved vehicle efficiency. For the aggressive Sustainable Development Scenario, the GHG emissions of LDVs would peak before 2026, ahead of China’s target by 2030, and the ~ 100% share of EVs in 2040 would result in a lower GHG emissions, equivalent to the 2010 level. It highlights the importance of early action, green electricity mix, and public transport development in reducing GHG emissions of large LDV fleet.