Effect of incarceration on criminality in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil

Criminality is a major factor in reducing the well-being of the Brazilian population. As a result, many researchers and governments strive to discover what can reduce crime and mitigate its consequences. Incarceration is one of the most widely used mechanisms to accomplish that. The view of incarceration as a means of reducing criminality is usually validated in the economic literature on crime. However, the empirical literature points to the possibility of its not always achieving this aim or even having a positive effect on crime. Based on the finding that the number of prisoners in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais increased by 289% from 2006 to 2015, this article set out to estimate the effect of incarceration on criminality in Minas Gerais, using a dynamic panel data econometric model. The results showed that incarceration positively impacts the homicide rate, thereby demonstrating that it exerts a criminogenic effect.