Severe COPD Exacerbation Risk and Long-Acting Bronchodilator Treatments: Comparison of Three Observational Data Analysis Methods

Objective: Results from three observational methods for assessing effectiveness of long-acting bronchodilator therapies for reducing severe exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) were compared: intent-to-treat (ITT), as protocol (AP), and an as-treated analysis that utilized a marginal structural model (MSM) incorporating time-varying covariates related to treatment adherence and moderate exacerbations. Study Design and Setting: Severe exacerbation risk was assessed over a 2-year period using claims data for patients aged ≥40 years who initiated long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA), inhaled corticosteroid/long-acting beta-agonist (ICS/LABA), or triple therapy (LAMA + ICS/LABA). Results: A total of 5475 COPD patients met inclusion criteria. Six months post-initiation, 53.5 % of patients discontinued using any therapy. The ITT analysis found an increased severe exacerbation risk for triple therapy treatment (hazard ratio [HR] 1.24; 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.00–1.53). No increased risk was found in the AP (HR 1.00; 95 % CI 0.73–1.36), or MSM analyses (HR 1.11; 95 % CI 0.68–1.81). The MSM highlighted important associations among post-index events. Conclusion: Neglecting to adjust for treatment discontinuation may produce biased risk estimates. The MSM approach is a promising tool to compare chronic disease management by illuminating relationships between treatment decisions, adherence, patient choices, and outcomes. © 2015, The Author(s).