The decomposition and policy meaning of China’s carbon emission intensity

Economic policy and energy policy are two major factors of energy consumption and carbon emissions in China. This paper analyzed China’s carbon emission intensity from two perspectives: per capita carbon emission of primary energy (CEPE) and final carbon emission intensity (FCEI), that is, final carbon emission per unit of GDP. Based on the latest available China statistics data, Divisia decomposition was applied to decompose the changes of carbon emission intensity. Study results showed that economic policy and energy policy factors in different periods impact on carbon intensity change and contribution rates are different. In terms of per capita CEPE, the level of economic development is major factors of per capita CEPE increase, which is increased by 309% and improved by 4.7 tCO2 during 1980–2012, where economic development promoted to increase per capita CEPE with contribution rate of 215.7%, while energy efficiency and structural changes played a role in reducing carbon emissions per capita. For analysis of FCEI which reduced by 52% during 1996–2012, energy efficiency is the main determinant of reduced emission intensity with the contribution rate of 106%, followed by the structural change of energy, while changes of industrial structure promote carbon emission intensity improvements. Thus, economic policy, energy policy in the different impacts on carbon emissions, and the contribution rate are different, and finally, preliminary recommendation and policy reflection for energy development policy were concluded.