Dynamical features of hazardous near-Earth objects

We discuss the dynamical features of near-Earth objects moving in dangerous proximity to Earth. We report the computation results for the motions of all observed near-Earth objects over a 600-year-long time period: 300 years in the past and 300 years in the future. We analyze the dynamical features of Earth-approaching objects. In particular, we established that the observed distribution of geocentric velocities of dangerous objects depends on their size. No bodies with geocentric velocities smaller that 5 kms-1 have been found among hazardous objects with absolute magnitudes H <18, whereas 9% of observed objects with H <27 pass near Earth moving at such velocities. On the other hand, we found a tendency for geocentric velocities to increase atH >29. We estimated the distribution of absolute magnitudes of hazardous objects based on our analysis of the data for the asteroids that have passed close to Earth. We inferred the Earth-impact frequencies for objects of different sizes. Impacts of objects with H <18 with Earth occur on average once every 0.53 Myr, and impacts of objects with H <27—once every 130–240 years. We show that currently about 0.1% of all near-Earth objects with diameters greater than 10 m have been discovered. We point out the discrepancies between the estimates of impact rates of Chelyabinsk-type objects, determined from fireball observations and from the data of telescopic asteroid tracking surveys. These estimates can be reconciled assuming that Chelyabinsk-sized asteroids have very low albedos (about 0.02 on average).