Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change and Variability in Chitwan: Long-Term Trends and Farmers' Perceptions

A study was conducted to detect climate change and variability using climate records and farmers' perceptions in Chitwan, Nepal, and to evaluate climatic impacts on small-holder agriculture. Forty years of climatic data (1968-2007) from a weather station at the National Maize Research Program, Rampur, and 15 years of rice, maize, and wheat productivity data (1992-2008) from the District Agriculture Development Office, Chitwan were collected and analyzed using non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and regression analysis. Questionnaire survey was conducted on sixty randomly selected households of Chitwan to understand farmers' perceptions and adaptations in response to changing climate and variability. Occurrence of extreme events and disasters was cross-validated with DesInventer, a disaster database available for Nepal for 1971-2007. There has been no clear trend in the annual and seasonal rainfall of Chitwan during 1970-2007. However, variation in temperature and a significant upward trend for both minimum (p = 0.014) and maximum temperature (p = 0.018) was observed. The occurrence of extreme events and increased variability in temperature has increased the vulnerability of crops to biotic and abiotic stresses and altered the timing of agricultural operations; thereby affecting crop production. Despite growing attempts of local communities to adapt to changing climate and variability, further planned adaptation aimed at a larger scale and longer duration is necessary to sustain the livelihood security of small-holder farmers. © 2014 NAAS (National Academy of Agricultural Sciences).