Minding the gap: Central bank estimates of the unemployment natural rate

被引：6
|
作者：
Kozicki S. [1 ]
Tinsley P.A. [2 ]
机构：
[1] Research Department, Bank of Canada, Ottawa, Ont. K1A 0G9
[2] Department of Economics, George Washington University, Washington, DC 20007, 3840 Beecher St., NW
来源：
Computational Economics | 2006年 / 27卷 / 2-3期
关键词：
FOMC Greenbook forecasts; The Great inflation; Time-varying natural rates;
D O I：
10.1007/s10614-006-9029-3
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
A time-varying parameter framework is suggested for use with real-time multiperiod forecast data to estimate implied forecast equations. The framework is applied to historical briefing forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee to estimate the U.S. central bank's ex ante perceptions of the natural rate of unemployment. Relative to retrospective estimates, empirical results do not indicate severe underestimation of the natural rate of unemployment in the 1970s. © Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 2006.
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页码：295 / 327
页数：32
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