Determinants of the level of circulating-tumor HPV16 DNA in patients with HPV-associated oropharyngeal cancer at the time of diagnosis

Circulating tumor HPV DNA (ctHPV16) assessed in liquid biopsy may be used as a marker of cancer in patients with HPV-associated oropharyngeal cancer (HPV + OPC). Factors influencing the initial ctHPV16 quantity are not well recognized. In this study we aimed to establish what factors are related to the level of ctHPV16 at the time of diagnosis. 51 patients (37 men and 14 women, median age of 57 years old) with HPV + OPC prior to definitive treatment were included. ctHPV16 was measured by qPCR. Tumor and nodal staging were assessed according to AJCC8. Blood derived factors included squamous cell carcinoma antigen (SCC-Ag), serum soluble fragment of cytokeratin 19 (CYFRA 21-1), C-reactive protein (CRP), albumin level (Alb), neutrophils (Neut), thrombocytes (Plt) and lymphocyte (Lym) count, Neut/Lym ratio were assessed. The volumes of the primary tumor (TV) and involved lymph nodes (NV) were calculated using MRI, CT or PET-CT scans. Data were analysed using parametric and nonparametric methods. Variables for multivariable linear regression analysis were chosen based on the results from univariable analysis (correlation, univariable regression and difference). There were 9 (18%), 10 (19%) and 32 (63%) patients who had TV and NV assessed in MRI, CT or PET respectively. Primary tumor neither as T-stage nor TV was related to ctHPV16 level. Significant differences in the ctHPV16 between patients with high vs low pain (P = 0.038), NV (P = 0.023), TV + NV (P = 0.018), CYFRA 21-1 (P = 0.002), CRP (P = 0.019), and N1 vs N3 (P = 0.044) were observed. ctHPV16 was significantly associated with CYFRA 21-1 (P = 0.017), N stage (P = 0.005), NV (P = 0.009), TV + NV (P = 0.002), CRP (P = 0.019), and pain (P = 0.038). In univariable linear regression analysis the same variables predicted ctHPV16 level. In multivariable analyses, CYFRA 21-1 and CRP (both as categorical variables) were predictors of ctHPV16 level even above NV. ctHPV16 at presentation is driven by tumor volume measured mostly by N. CYFRA 21-1 and CRP are additional factors related to ctHPV16 prior to the treatment.