Belief networks: A framework for the participatory development of natural resource management strategies

Successful long-term management of natural resources requires the development of strategies which recognise the constraints pertaining to the environmental system and can therefore be realistically expected to work. This paper presents a new technique for strategy formulation using belief networks, a framework based on Bayesian probability calculus that supports the investigation of complex environmental systems by the user and analysis of all constraints. While mathematical in nature, belief networks are superficially simple and allow concepts to be expressed in terms with which a wide range of user will be familiar. This offers a participatory approach to the development of management strategies through consideration of the impact of potential management options with consequent benefits for strategy implementation.