Aseismic slip and recent ruptures of persistent asperities along the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone

The frictional properties and slip behaviors of subduction thrusts play a key role in seismic and tsunami hazard assessment, especially in weakly coupled “seismic gaps”. Here, we rely on GPS observations in the Shumagin Gap of the Aleutian subduction zone to derive the slip distribution of the 2020 Mw 7.8 Simeonof Island, Alaska earthquake and of the subsequent afterslip during the first 87-day period. Our modeling results show that the mainshock ruptured at depths of ∼30–40 km beneath Simeonof Island. Kinematic and stress-driven models indicate that the afterslip occurred both updip and downdip of the mainshock rupture. Physically plausible locking models derived from interseismic GPS velocities suggest that the 2020 Simeonof and 2021 Mw 8.2 Chignik earthquakes ruptured persistent asperities on the subduction thrust. We infer that there are several additional persistent asperities at depths of 20–50 km west ∼157°W. However, it is still uncertain whether there are additional locked asperities at shallow depths because of the current lack of geodetic observations close to the trench.