Searching for the natural rate of interest: A euro area perspective

A time-varying natural rate of interest is estimated for the euro area using a multivariate unobserved components model. The problem of aggregating interest rate data for the pre-EMU period is directly addressed, and a simple method is proposed in order to adjust the risk premia in the interest rate data prior to 1999. We show that, for the pre-EMU period, using risk-unadjusted policy rates leads to periods of high risk premia being erroneously taken as monetary policy replies to the output gap; in contrast, using risk-adjusted policy rates yields an estimate of the reaction of monetary policy to the output gap corresponding approximately to an increase of 40 basis points for a 1%positive deviation of output from potential output. A positive deviation of inflation from its trend of 1% is estimated to have triggered an approximately 1.2% increase in short-term interest rates. © Kluwer Academic Publishers 2004.