The Heterogeneous Severity of COVID-19 in African Countries: A Modeling Approach

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作者
Salihu Sabiu Musa
Xueying Wang
Shi Zhao
Shudong Li
Nafiu Hussaini
Weiming Wang
Daihai He
机构
[1] Hong Kong Polytechnic University,Department of Applied Mathematics
[2] Kano University of Science and Technology,Department of Mathematics
[3] Washington State University,Department of Mathematics and Statistics
[4] Chinese University of Hong Kong,JC School of Public Health and Primary Care
[5] Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong,Cyberspace Institute of Advanced Technology
[6] Guangzhou University,Department of Mathematical Sciences
[7] Bayero University Kano,School of Mathematics and Statistics
[8] Huaiyin Normal University,undefined
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关键词
SARS-CoV-2; Pandemic; Reproduction number; Attack rate; Seroprevalence;
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摘要
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a considerable impact on global health and economics. The impact in African countries has not been investigated thoroughly via fitting epidemic models to the reported COVID-19 deaths. We downloaded the data for the 12 most-affected countries with the highest cumulative COVID-19 deaths to estimate the time-varying basic reproductive number (R0(t)\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${R}_{0}(t)$$\end{document}) and infection attack rate. We develop a simple epidemic model and fitted it to reported COVID-19 deaths in 12 African countries using iterated filtering and allowing a flexible transmission rate. We observe high heterogeneity in the case-fatality rate across the countries, which may be due to different reporting or testing efforts. South Africa, Tunisia, and Libya were most affected, exhibiting a relatively higher R0(t)\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${R}_{0}(t)$$\end{document} and infection attack rate. Thus, to effectively control the spread of COVID-19 epidemics in Africa, there is a need to consider other mitigation strategies (such as improvements in socioeconomic well-being, healthcare systems, the water supply, and awareness campaigns).
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