Numerical modeling of neotectonic movements and state of stresses in the central Seismic Gap region, Garhwal Himalaya

This paper presents finite element modeling (FEM) to simulate the present-day stress field and crustal deformation using NE-SW structural section in the central Seismic Gap region of the Garhwal Himalaya. Our study deals with the effect of geometrical characteristics and rock layer parameters on the upper crust. Modeling results show that two types of tectonic regimes developed in the central Seismic Gap region: the geotectonics of the northern part has been controlled by regional compression, whereas southern part is characterized by regional extension. Correspondingly, thrust faults are induced in the northern part and normal faults are extensively developed in the southern front. Those evidences noticeably indicate that the compressive tectonic environment of the Himalaya becomes change into the extensional tectonic regime in its front. The computed shear stress accumulation along the northern flat of Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) implies that considerable amount of interseismic stress is building up along the MHT system in the Himalaya, which ultimately release through the possible future great Himalayan earthquake (M > 8). The comparison between our modeled stress field, faulting pattern and horizontal shortening rate with the distribution of the microseismic events, focal mechanism solutions, active faulting and GPS data in the central Seismic Gap region shows good agreement.