Population evolution at the prefecture-level city scale in China: Change patterns and spatial correlations

China has entered a new stage of high-quality urbanization. Therefore, it is critical to grasp the latest population distribution and dynamics. Using mean-variance grading, Moran’s index, and the Theil index, this study compared the differences in population changes between 2010–2020 and 2000–2010 at the prefecture-level city scale based on census data to analyze the new trends in population evolution. We found that: (1) New growth poles of the population are inland provincial capitals, forming rapid-growing zones together with coastal urban agglomerations. Population growth in over 60% of the cities in the northern coastal urban agglomeration has slowed. (2) The scope of population loss in inland areas is constantly expanding. In the northeastern part of China, 92.7% of the cities have lost population, making this a typical population loss area. (3) Population shrinkage in the northeastern region and growth in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration show diffusion characteristics, while population patterns around the provincial capital are in a polarized stage. (4) The Theil index of population distribution increased, with 83.91% of differences coming from between groups, indicating that the gap between cities of different sizes has further expanded. This study provides scientific support for the coordinated promotion of nearby and remote urbanization.