Trend analysis of MODIS NDVI time series and its relationship to temperature and precipitation in Northeastern of Iran

Vegetation plays a crucial role in providing organic matter and regulating energy exchange on the Earth's surface. This study investigates the changes in vegetation cover, temperature, and precipitation in northeastern Iran during 2001–2020. MODIS-NDVI time series data and climatic data from 11 synoptic stations were utilized. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall method was employed to detect trends in vegetation cover and climatic variables. Additionally, the correlation between climatic parameters and vegetation was examined. Trend analysis revealed significant increases/decreases in vegetation cover in 32%/26% of the region, respectively. The increasing trend in vegetation cover was predominantly observed in highlands, suggesting that a warmer climate has enhanced the living conditions for plants in these regions. The vegetation trend map indicates an expansion of vegetation cover in the northern and central parts of Iran during the past 20 years, whereas the southern and eastern portions experienced declines. The relationship between vegetation and elevation revealed that vegetation increased above 1,850 m and decreased below 850 m. Trend analysis showed no significant trend in precipitation data since the beginning of the twenty-first century, but an increasing trend in temperature was observed in 82% of the region’s area, excluding the western strip. Correlation coefficients between temperature, precipitation, and vegetation indicated that declining temperatures are the limiting factors for vegetation in the highlands, while in lowland areas, the decrease in precipitation significantly diminishes vegetation growth.