The impact of economic complexity on embodied carbon emission in trade: new empirical evidence from cross-country panel data

Establishing a fair platform for allocating carbon emission responsibility worldwide determines the sustainability and efficiency of the world’s climate policy and framework. In the context of global environmental load displacement and CO2 transfer, this paper endeavors to examine the relationship between economic complexity and embodied carbon emissions based on cross-country panel data. Our study utilizes the generalized method of moments (GMM) approach to estimate our dynamic models covering 34 OECD countries and 24 non-OECD countries from 1995 to 2015. The empirical results show a heterogeneous impact of economic complexity on embodied carbon emissions in exports (EEE) and imports (EEI). Besides, the scale effect, composition effect, and technology effect are also significant drivers of embodied carbon emissions. The improvement of economic complexity can decrease the marginal effects of export scale and export structure on foreign EEE (but not domestic EEE) significantly, while the marginal positive impacts of technology on EEE can be further enhanced by economic complexity growth. Moreover, there is no strong evidence to prove the significant indirect impacts of economic complexity on foreign carbon emission embodied in imports, while economic complexity has significantly positive indirect impacts on domestic carbon emission embodied in imports only through import scale. In the subsample regressions, we found asymmetric impacts of economic complexity between high-income countries and low- and middle-income countries.