An analysis of energy diversification and transition trends in Africa

Unlike energy security, energy diversification, which is an essential precursor for energy security and sustainability transitions, has not received much scholarly attention, especially in Africa. Applying the Energy Mix Concentration Index method (a modified version of the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index), this study examined energy diversification and transition trends in Africa’s top ten economies over an 18-year period, from 2000 to 2017. Data were obtained in July 2020 from the African Union Energy Commission’s data portal. Overall, energy diversification was found to be occurring at a very slow pace. Kenya and Morocco emerged as the two most energy diversified countries (with indices of 0.34 and 0.37, respectively), while Algeria (0.98) and Ethiopia (0.87) were the least diversified countries as at 2017. The energy transition trend is consistent with the multiple fuel use/energy stacking model rather than the energy ladder hypothesis. “Balance” (the share of each energy source in the energy mix) was found to significantly influence energy diversification. Contrary to past assertions, this study finds that higher “variety” (the number of energy sources in the energy mix) does not signify greater diversity. A weak negative linear relationship was found between gross domestic product growth and Energy Mix Concentration Indices for most countries, suggesting that as gross domestic product grows, the energy mix becomes more diversified. However, this relationship was statistically insignificant. Policy makers need to increase investments in renewable energies, and diversify their economies (especially in oil-dependent countries) to facilitate energy diversification and sustainable energy transitions.