HIV viral suppression and risk of viral rebound in patients on antiretroviral therapy: a two- year retrospective cohort study in Northern Tanzania

Background The world is moving towards the third target of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS to ensure most people receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) are virologically suppressed. Little is known about viral suppression at an undetectable level and the risk of viral rebound phenomenon in sub-Saharan Africa which covers 67% of the global HIV burden.This study aimed to investigate the proportion of viral suppression at an undetectable level and the risk of viral rebound among people living with HIV receiving ART in northern Tanzania. Methodology A hospital based-retrospective study recruited people living with HIV who were on ART for at least two years at Kibong'oto Infectious Disease Hospital and Mawenzi Regional Referral Hospital in Kilimanjaro Region, Tanzania. Participants' two-year plasma HIV were captured at months 6, 12, and 24 of ART. Undetectable viral load was defined by plasma HIV of viral load (VL) less than 20copies/ml and viral rebound (VR) was considered to anyone having VL of more than 50 copies/ml after having history of undetectable level of the VL less than 20copies/ml. A multivariable log-binomial generalized linear model was used to determine factors for undetectable VL and viral VR. Results Among 416 PLHIV recruited, 226 (54.3%) were female. The mean (standard deviation) age was 43.7 (13.3) years. The overall proportion of undetectable VL was 68% (95% CI: 63.3-72.3) and 40.0% had viral rebound (95% CI: 34.7-45.6). Participants who had at least 3 clinic visits were 1.3 times more likely to have undetectable VL compared to those who had 1 to 2 clinic visits in a year (p = 0.029). Similarly, participants with many clinical visits ( > = 3 visits) per year were less likely to have VR compared to those with fewer visits ( = 2 visits) [adjusted relative risk (aRR) = 0.64; 95% CI: 0.44-0.93]. Conclusion Participants who had fewer clinic visits per year(ART refills) were less likely to achieve viral suppression and more likely to experience viral rebound. Enhanced health education and close follow-up of PLHIV on antiretroviral therapy are crucial to reinforce adherence and maintain an undetectable viral load.