Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change

被引：2

作者：

E. A. G. Schuur

B. W. Abbott

W. B. Bowden

V. Brovkin

P. Camill

J. G. Canadell

J. P. Chanton

F. S. Chapin

T. R. Christensen

P. Ciais

B. T. Crosby

C. I. Czimczik

G. Grosse

J. Harden

D. J. Hayes

G. Hugelius

J. D. Jastrow

J. B. Jones

T. Kleinen

C. D. Koven

G. Krinner

P. Kuhry

D. M. Lawrence

A. D. McGuire

S. M. Natali

J. A. O’Donnell

C. L. Ping

W. J. Riley

A. Rinke

V. E. Romanovsky

A. B. K. Sannel

C. Schädel

K. Schaefer

J. Sky

Z. M. Subin

C. Tarnocai

M. R. Turetsky

M. P. Waldrop

K. M. Walter Anthony

K. P. Wickland

C. J. Wilson

S. A. Zimov

机构：

[1] University of Florida,

[2] University of Alaska Fairbanks,undefined

[3] University of Vermont,undefined

[4] Max Planck Institute for Meteorology,undefined

[5] Bowdoin College,undefined

[6] Global Carbon Project CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research,undefined

[7] Florida State University,undefined

[8] Lund University,undefined

[9] LSCE,undefined

[10] CEA-CNRS-UVSQ,undefined

[11] Idaho State University,undefined

[12] University of California,undefined

[13] US Geological Survey,undefined

[14] Oak Ridge National Laboratory,undefined

[15] Stockholm University,undefined

[16] Argonne National Laboratory,undefined

[17] Lawrence Berkeley National Lab,undefined

[18] CNRS/UJF-Grenoble 1,undefined

[19] LGGE,undefined

[20] National Center for Atmospheric Research,undefined

[21] U.S. Geological Survey,undefined

[22] Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit,undefined

[23] University of Alaska,undefined

[24] Arctic Network,undefined

[25] National Park Service,undefined

[26] Alfred Wegener Institute,undefined

[27] National Snow and Ice Data Center,undefined

[28] Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences,undefined

[29] University of Colorado,undefined

[30] University of Oxford,undefined

[31] AgriFoods,undefined

[32] University of Guelph,undefined

[33] U.S. Geological Survey,undefined

[34] Los Alamos National Laboratory,undefined

[35] North-East Scientific Station,undefined

来源：

Climatic Change | 2013年 / 119卷

关键词：

Global Warming Potential; Warming Scenario; Permafrost Zone; Permafrost Thaw; Permafrost Degradation;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19–45 Pg C by 2040, 162–288 Pg C by 2100, and 381–616 Pg C by 2300 in CO2 equivalent using 100-year CH4 global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH4 GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH4 even though CH4 was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing.

引用

页码：359 / 374

页数：15

共 50 条

[1] Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change
Schuur, E. A. G.
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Bowden, W. B.
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Canadell, J. G.
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