Impact of equatorial Atlantic variability on ENSO predictive skill

被引:0
|
作者
Eleftheria Exarchou
Pablo Ortega
Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca
Teresa Losada
Irene Polo
Chloé Prodhomme
机构
[1] Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC),Departamento de Fisica de la Tierra y Astrofisica
[2] Universidad Complutense de Madrid,Instituto de Geociencias
[3] IGEO (CSIC-UCM),Group of Meteorology
[4] Universitat de Barcelona (UB),CNRM
[5] Université de Toulouse,undefined
[6] Météo France,undefined
[7] CNRS,undefined
来源
关键词
D O I
暂无
中图分类号
学科分类号
摘要
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key mode of climate variability with worldwide climate impacts. Recent studies have highlighted the impact of other tropical oceans on its variability. In particular, observations have demonstrated that summer Atlantic Niños (Niñas) favor the development of Pacific Niñas (Niños) the following winter, but it is unclear how well climate models capture this teleconnection and its role in defining the seasonal predictive skill of ENSO. Here we use an ensemble of seasonal forecast systems to demonstrate that a better representation of equatorial Atlantic variability in summer and its lagged teleconnection mechanism with the Pacific relates to enhanced predictive capacity of autumn/winter ENSO. An additional sensitivity study further shows that correcting SST variability in equatorial Atlantic improves different aspects of forecast skill in the Tropical Pacific, boosting ENSO skill. This study thus emphasizes that new efforts to improve the representation of equatorial Atlantic variability, a region with long standing systematic model biases, can foster predictive skill in the region, the Tropical Pacific and beyond, through the global impacts of ENSO.
引用
收藏
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [1] Impact of equatorial Atlantic variability on ENSO predictive skill
    Exarchou, Eleftheria
    Ortega, Pablo
    Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen
    Losada, Teresa
    Polo, Irene
    Prodhomme, Chloe
    [J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, 2021, 12 (01)
  • [2] The predictive skill and the most predictable pattern in the tropical Atlantic: The effect of ENSO
    Hu, Zeng-Zhen
    Huang, Bohua
    [J]. MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW, 2007, 135 (05) : 1786 - 1806
  • [3] Improved Simulation of ENSO Variability Through Feedback From the Equatorial Atlantic in a Pacemaker Experiment
    Bi, Daohua
    Wang, Guojian
    Cai, Wenju
    Santoso, Agus
    Sullivan, Arnold
    Ng, Benjamin
    Jia, Fan
    [J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2022, 49 (02)
  • [4] A simulation of variability of ENSO forecast skill
    Davey, MK
    Anderson, DLT
    Lawrence, S
    [J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 1996, 9 (01) : 240 - 247
  • [5] The equatorial Atlantic oscillation and its response to ENSO
    M. Latif
    A. Grötzner
    [J]. Climate Dynamics, 2000, 16 : 213 - 218
  • [6] The equatorial Atlantic oscillation and its response to ENSO
    Latif, M
    Grötzner, A
    [J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2000, 16 (2-3) : 213 - 218
  • [7] Impact of Indian Ocean Dipole on Atlantic Nino predictive skill
    Liu, Ao
    Zuo, Jinqing
    Tian, Ben
    Lu, Bo
    [J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2023, 18 (07):
  • [8] VARIABILITY OF CURRENTS IN EQUATORIAL ATLANTIC
    BUBNOV, VA
    MOROSHKIN, KV
    EGORIKHIN, VD
    MATVEEVA, ZN
    [J]. OKEANOLOGIYA, 1976, 16 (03): : 408 - 415
  • [9] Impacts of Tropical North Atlantic and Equatorial Atlantic SST Anomalies on ENSO
    Jiang, Leishan
    Li, Tim
    [J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2021, 34 (14) : 5635 - 5655
  • [10] Local coupled equatorial variability versus remote ENSO forcing in an intermediate coupled model of the tropical Atlantic
    Illig, Serena
    Dewitte, Boris
    [J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2006, 19 (20) : 5227 - 5252