A new look at carbon dioxide emissions in MENA countries

This paper revisits the dynamic relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and income growth for the Middle East and North African (MENA) region. There has been a lively debate about the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), which postulates the presence of an inverted U-shaped pattern for pollution levels as income increases. Our study proposes a new approach that models the emissions–income nexus without imposing any prior shape on the EKC. Accordingly, we suggest the implementation of a nonlinear panel threshold regression framework in which the change in the dynamics of environmental quality can be modeled endogenously from the data. The empirical results reveal the presence of a threshold effect in CO2 emissions, as the impact of income changes nonlinearly depending on different energy-related variables. We note the role of the energy fuel mix in mitigating emissions as MENA countries switch to low-carbon sources of energy and renewables.