Analysis and Prediction of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus by the Ensemble Learning Method

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is the most common disease in pregnancy and can cause a series of maternal and infant complications. A new study shows that GDM affects one in six deliveries. Identifying and screening for risk factors for GDM can effectively help intervene and improve the condition of women and their children. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to determine the risk factors for GDM and to use the ensemble learning method to judge whether pregnant women suffer from GDM more accurately. First, this study involves six commonly used machine learning algorithms to analyze the GDM data from the Tianchi competition, selects the risk factors according to the ranking of each model, and uses the Shapley additive interpreter method to determine the importance of the selected risk factors. Second, the combined weighting method was used to analyze and evaluate the risk factors for gestational diabetes and to determine a group of important factors. Lastly, a new integrated light gradient-boosting machine-extreme gradient boosting-gradient boosting tree (LightGBM-Xgboost-GB) learning method is proposed to determine whether pregnant women have gestational diabetes mellitus. We used the gray correlation degree to calculate the weight and used a genetic algorithm for optimization. In terms of prediction accuracy and comprehensive effects, the final model is better than the commonly used machine learning model. The ensemble learning model is comprehensive and flexible and can be used to determine whether pregnant women suffer from GDM. In addition to disease prediction, the model can also be extended for use to many other areas of research.