The influence of energy consumption and research and development on carbon emission in China: a modified spatial Durbin model approach

Global warming continues to be an intimidating factor for environmental protection and promoting environmental quality requires urgent attention. This research aims to explore the influence of research and development, environmental regulation, and energy consumption on carbon emissions in China using the modified spatial Durbin model. The dynamic threshold model was introduced in anticipation of a possible endogeneity bias. The findings show that carbon emissions have significant spatial correlation in both temporal and spatial dimensions, with both high- and low-value agglomeration characteristics. Furthermore, R&D intensity, environmental regulation, and energy consumption were found to contribute to a rise in carbon emissions throughout China’s provinces, and demonstrated different influencing mechanisms. Increased carbon emissions in nearby regions also lead to an increase in local carbon emissions. To promote carbon reduction through breaking the dynamic equilibrium in China, the provincial investment outflow on R&D intensity could be optimized, and regional levels should focus more on tightening environmental regulatory measures and promoting the development of energy-conserving technologies.