Managing the impact of climate on migration: evidence from Mexico

Although there is a growing literature on the impact of climate and weather-related events on migration, little is known about the mitigating effect of policies directed toward the agricultural sector, or aimed at insuring against environmental disasters. This paper uses state-level data on migration flows between Mexico and the USA from 1999 to 2012 to investigate the mitigating impact of an agricultural cash transfer program (PROCAMPO) and a disaster fund (Fonden) on the migration response to weather shocks. We find that Fonden decreases migration in response to heavy rainfall, hurricanes and droughts. Increases in PROCAMPO amounts paid to small producers play a more ambiguous role in the migration response to shocks. Changes in the distribution of PROCAMPO payments favoring more vulnerable producers in the non-irrigated ejido sector, however, seem to mitigate the impact of droughts on migration.