Modelling Fertility Schedules of India

Age-specific fertility distribution of India is skewed and thus deviates from the classical bell-shaped (normal) curve which is evident in fertility data from the developed countries. In the present paper, empirical analysis based on NFHS-3 (2005–06) data is undertaken to propose a new fertility model in order to portray prevalent patterns of single-year age-specific fertility in India. Fertility behaviour among Indian women in the childbearing age groups is modelled as a function of reciprocal of mothers’ ages. Model selection criteria of coefficient of determination and cross-validity prediction power suggest that the proposed polynomial of degree five is a suitable model to describe the varying fertility patterns of India and its sub regions.