Industrial structure, technological progress and CO2 emissions in China: Analysis based on the STIRPAT framework

Using data for 30 provincial panels in China from the period 1997–2014, this study analyzes the impact of multi-dimensional industrial structures and technological progress on carbon emissions in the STIRPAT framework. A spatial autocorrelation test demonstrated that there were significant positive global spatial correlations and local spatial agglomerations among the regions that were assessed. The dynamic spatial regression results show that industrial structure rationalization, industrial structural transformation and industrial structural upgrading significantly reduced carbon emissions. Industrial structural transformation provided the greatest contribution to carbon emissions. Technological progress was also conducive to reducing carbon emissions. Furthermore, efficiency improvements and technological innovation reduced carbon emissions, and efficiency improvements played a relatively greater role. There was an inverted U-shaped relationship between regional affluence and carbon emissions. The energy consumption structure, population and urbanization had significantly positive effects on carbon dioxide emissions, but the impact of foreign direct investments on carbon reduction was insignificant. Finally, some policy recommendations are given.