Futuristic changes in monthly meteorological parameters as simulated by four GCMs under four emission-based scenarios at Ludhiana, Punjab

General circulation models (GCMs) simulate the earth-atmosphere continuum and their interactions on the basis of past observations and future climate scenarios by considering the level of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols. In the present study, the changes in temperature and rainfall on monthly basis were assessed by downscaling the data from four GCMs (CSIRO-Mk3-6–0, FIO-ESM, GISS-E2-R, and IPSL-CM5A-MR) under four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios during the twenty-first century for Ludhiana (Punjab). The projected changes and their deviations from baseline period (1975–2015) were analyzed. The four models simulated that under the four RCP scenarios during spring and autumn seasons, an increase in Tmax is predicted by 2.1 and 1.8 °C, respectively, in Tmin by 3.2 and 3.3 °C, respectively, and in rainfall by 15 and 81 mm, respectively, during mid-century (2020–2049). A further increase in temperature and variability in rainfall is predicted during the end century. The hotter and drier weather with sudden splurge of rainfall coupled with extended dry spells may not augur good for the crops. The projected rise in temperature during February and March will adversely affect the growth of wheat as the incidence of terminal heat stress is a major constraint in wheat productivity. During the 4 months of monsoon season, an increase in rainfall during 1 month (July) and decrease during 2 months (August and September) may exacerbate the already dwindling water resources of the state. So, a good crop contingency planning would be needed to sustain the agricultural productivity in the state.