Global sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification for design parameters of shallow geothermal systems

被引:0
|
作者
Simon Richter
Katrin Lubashevsky
Jakob Randow
Steve Henker
Jörg Buchwald
Anke Bucher
机构
[1] Leipzig University of Applied Sciences,Faculty of Engineering
[2] HTWK,Department of Environmental Informatics
[3] Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research,Faculty of Environmental Sciences
[4] UFZ,Center for Information Services and High Performance Computing (ZIH)
[5] geoENERGIE Konzept GmbH,undefined
[6] TUD Dresden University of Technology,undefined
[7] TUD Dresden University of Technology,undefined
来源
关键词
Shallow geothermal exploitation; Borehole heat exchanger; Ground source heat pump; Numerical simulation; OpenGeoSys; Sensitivity analysis; Uncertainty quantification; Sobol’ indices; Monte Carlo simulation; Machine learning;
D O I
暂无
中图分类号
学科分类号
摘要
To improve the design process of geothermal systems, it is important to know which design parameters particularly affect the performance of the system. This article presents investigations on design parameters for borehole heat exchangers in the shallow subsurface. The study is based on numerical simulations with one double U-tube borehole heat exchanger and approximated models obtained using machine learning. As a result of the global sensitivity analysis, relevant parameters are identified and their respective influence on the performance of a borehole heat exchanger is compared. For example, according to this analysis, the three parameters with the highest sensitivity are the initial temperature, the heat demand and the share of the borehole heat exchanger that is surrounded by groundwater flow. Finally, the effects of uncertainties in the parameters identified as relevant for the design of a borehole heat exchanger are considered in an uncertainty quantification for a fictitious site. Uncertainties for regulatory compliance with respect to temperature limits as well as a large probability of oversizing the system were identified for the considered example. The results of the exemplary uncertainty quantification indicate that it has the potential to be a useful tool for planning practice.
引用
收藏
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [1] Global sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification for design parameters of shallow geothermal systems
    Richter, Simon
    Lubashevsky, Katrin
    Randow, Jakob
    Henker, Steve
    Buchwald, Joerg
    Bucher, Anke
    [J]. GEOTHERMAL ENERGY, 2024, 12 (01)
  • [2] Functional perspective of uncertainty quantification for stochastic parametric systems and global sensitivity analysis
    Wan, Zhiqiang
    Chen, Jianbing
    Beer, Michael
    [J]. Lixue Xuebao/Chinese Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics, 2021, 53 (03): : 837 - 854
  • [3] Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of seismic metabarriers
    Zeighami, Farhad
    Sandoval, Leonardo
    Guadagnini, Alberto
    Di Federico, Vittorio
    [J]. ENGINEERING STRUCTURES, 2023, 277
  • [4] Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis for economic models
    Harenberg, Daniel
    Marelli, Stefano
    Sudret, Bruno
    Winschel, Viktor
    [J]. QUANTITATIVE ECONOMICS, 2019, 10 (01) : 1 - 41
  • [5] Uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis for the optimal design of distributed energy systems
    Mavromatidis, Georgios
    Orehounig, Kristina
    Carmeliet, Jan
    [J]. APPLIED ENERGY, 2018, 214 : 219 - 238
  • [6] Global sensitivity analysis for uncertainty quantification in fire spread models
    Ujjwal, K. C.
    Aryal, Jagannath
    Garg, Saurabh
    Hilton, James
    [J]. ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE, 2021, 143
  • [7] Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of Closure Parameters of Transition Models
    Song, Ziming
    Liu, Zaijie
    Yan, Chao
    [J]. JOURNAL OF AEROSPACE ENGINEERING, 2023, 36 (01)
  • [8] Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of transonic aerodynamics about airfoil
    Wu, Xiaojing
    Zhang, Weiwei
    Song, Shufang
    Ye, Zhengyin
    [J]. Lixue Xuebao/Chinese Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics, 2015, 47 (04): : 587 - 595
  • [9] Global Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification for a Hypersonic Shock Interaction Flow
    Burt, Jonathan M.
    Josyula, Eswar
    [J]. JOURNAL OF THERMOPHYSICS AND HEAT TRANSFER, 2015, 29 (03) : 439 - 449
  • [10] Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of composite wind turbine blades
    Thapa, Mishal
    Missoum, Samy
    [J]. RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY, 2022, 222