Spatial conflict simulation of land-use based on human-land-landscape elements intercoordination: a case study in Tianjin, China

The evolution of land-use spatial conflict is a comprehensive reflection of regional development and a common phenomenon in urbanization. The research on land-use spatial conflicts can provide theoretical basis and practical support for spatial control. The present study employs Tianjin as the research object, and ecological risk assessment model was improved based on landscape pattern analysis by selecting appropriate indicators that may bring conflict risk problems. The spatial conflict measurement model of land-use based on the coordination of human-land-landscape elements was preliminarily constructed. The spatial and temporal evolution of land-use spatial conflict degree, and spatial autocorrelation from 2000 to 2020 was preliminarily analyzed. Results showed that (1) the conflict measurement level of the model was verified by Google Earth remote sensing image platform and field survey, and the results were relatively consistent with the actual situation, which proves that this method was feasible. (2) The areas with low intensity of land-use conflict were mainly distributed in remote mountainous areas with less human activities, while the areas with high comprehensive conflict index were mainly distributed in the central urban area with more active human activities and urbanization, the urban fringe area, the water-land ecotone, and some landscape transition areas. (3) There was a close relationship between land use spatial conflict and land-use change. Areas with severe and frequent land-use changes were often areas with noticeable land-use conflict changes. In the period of high land-use change intensity and frequent land-use mode conversion, it was also a period of a large area where regional land-use conflict was enhanced. (4) The overall level of conflict showed an average trend year by year, and the high conflict fluctuates greatly with first rising and then falling, but the change range was small. Moderate conflict mainly showed a decreasing trend, with an extensive change range. The early stage of the mild conflict was relatively stable, and the later stage changed significantly.