Vulnerability assessment of coastal wetlands in Minjiang River Estuary based on cloud model under sea level rise

The change of coastal wetland vulnerability affects the ecological environment and the economic development of the estuary area. In the past, most of the assessment studies on the vulnerability of coastal ecosystems stayed in static qualitative research, lacking predictability, and the qualitative and quantitative relationship was not objective enough. In this study, the “Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence” model and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change vulnerability definition were used to analyze the main impact of sea level rise caused by climate change on coastal wetland ecosystem in Minjiang River Estuary. The results show that: (1) With the increase of time and carbon emission, the area of high vulnerability and the higher vulnerability increased continuously, and the area of low vulnerability and the lower vulnerability decreased. (2) The eastern and northeastern part of the Culu Island in the Minjiang River Estuary of Fujian Province and the eastern coastal wetland of Meihua Town in Changle District are areas with high vulnerability risk. The area of high vulnerability area of coastal wetland under high emission scenario is wider than that under low emission scenario. (3) Under different sea level rise scenarios, elevation has the greatest impact on the vulnerability of coastal wetlands, and slope has less impact. The impact of sea level rise caused by climate change on the coastal wetland ecosystem in the Minjiang River Estuary is mainly manifested in the sea level rise, which changes the habitat elevation and daily flooding time of coastal wetlands, and then affects the survival and distribution of coastal wetland ecosystems.