In-situ pore pressure variations in Koyna-Warna — A promising key to understand triggered earthquakes

The filling of the Koyna reservoir in western India and the associated triggered earthquakes have been well documented. Several studies have suggested that earthquakes are triggered on pre-existing faults in the region due to changes in pore pressure caused by pore pressure diffusion. To study in-situ pore pressure variations twenty-one borewells were drilled in the Koyna-Warna region under an Indo-German research program during 1995–1998. In most of these wells tidal signals are observed in well level variations indicating sensitivity to small strain changes in hydraulically connected, confined aquifers. Those signals, hence, are suitable to reflect variations in the stress field of local rock formations. More than a decade of well level monitoring has shown four types of earthquake related changes. The pre- and post-earthquake changes are mostly interpretative in nature and difficult to substantiate. The co-seismic and transient changes which are observed for local and large teleseismic events are well established. Wells connected to unconfined aquifers also showed changes related to seismicity in case of large magnitude earthquakes at closer distances. Some anomalous water level fluctuations are seen which are not associated with local or teleseismic earthquakes. These changes are coherent in nature and reflect aseismic regional volume strain.