Decoupling effect and forecasting of economic growth and energy structure under the peak constraint of carbon emissions in China

The decoupling effect between economic growth and energy structure was quantitatively analyzed from 1999 to 2014 across China. The results showed it existed weak decoupling effects in most regions. Based on the analysis of the influence of energy structure on carbon intensity, using scenario simulation methods and Markov chain modeling, the carbon intensity was predicted for China in 2020. The impact of energy structure adjustment on the carbon intensity to meet China’s carbon target by 18 possible scenarios are calculated. Furthermore, the peak value of carbon emissions was also calculated in 2030. The results showed that the carbon intensity predicted for China in 2020 can be achieved regardless of whether the energy structure was adjusted or not when energy saving and carbon reduction policies maintained with economic growth at 6–7%. Moreover, given fixed energy structure growth, for each 1% of economic growth, the carbon intensity will decrease by about 3.5%. Given fixed economic growth, the decrease of energy intensity will be greater if the control of energy consumption is stronger. The effect of energy structure adjustment on the decreasing of carbon intensity will be 4% higher under constraints than without constraints. On average, the contribution of energy structure adjustment to achieving the carbon intensity target was calculated as 4% higher than that with constraints. In addition, given relatively fixed economic growth at 6–7%, the peak value of carbon emission in 2030 was calculated as 13.209 billion tons with constraints and 14.38 billion tons without constraints.